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When Galley Cat invited me to make some predictions for the coming decade, I conjectured that sometime in the near future we would see the merger of a major retailer and a major publisher. Here was my reasoning: "A combined publisher/retailer solves many problems for both.The retailer owns the content and doesn't have to pay a premium for it. The publisher does not have to pay a premium to distribute its books. There would be huge efficiencies of manufacturing and distribution."
I've had about a month to think about what I said, and I want to revise it. The efficiencies of a retailer/publisher combine would not merely be huge. They would be decisive. If you don't believe it, ask Barnes & Noble and Amazon.
In 2003 Barnes & Noble acquired Sterling Publishing, described at the time as "one of the top 25 publishers in America and the industry's leading publisher of how-to books." Publishers were gravely concerned, and they had every reason to be. Barnes & Noble's own titles were like a supermarket's house brand, often undercutting the prices of outside purveyors.
And now Amazon is a publisher too. It started with its Encore program aimed at identifying overlooked books and authors. That was followed by the creation of a service called CreateSpace aimed at self-published authors. And now Amazon has begun publishing mainstream authors like Stephen King and recently acquired Stephen (The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People®) Covey for the Kindle.
The potential for mischief created by such combines was cogently articulated a few years ago by Morris Rosenthal and I urge you to read it. In essence, the savings generated by dissolving the barrier between seller and buyer enable the combine to lower prices below - sometimes far below - those charged by publishers that do not own their own retail branch. To state the case as simply as possible: Barnes & Noble and Amazon.com, the two most powerful retailers in the book business, have become competitors of the very publishers they serve.
Though these retailers have no qualms about becoming publishers, publishers on the other hand are terrified of becoming retailers for fear of provoking the wrath of their key accounts - B&N and Amazon! When publishers do dip a timid toe in the water and try to sell their books direct to the consumer, they offer them at full list price, which cannot possibly compete with the deeply discounted prices charged by B&N and Amazon. Yet, if they wanted to, publishers could sell their books directly to the public at 40% discount or higher and thus level the playing field.
The solution? To survive, to remain competitive, publishers may have no choice: they must either become retailers or end up being acquired by them.
At this moment Borders, one of the best and most popular bookstore chains in the business, is in a life and death struggle to remain viable. If a publisher were smart it would rescue Borders and go into the retail business.
Retailers, I said a while ago (see Direct Sales: Publishing’s Last Stand), are intermediaries in a world that is rapidly disintermediating. As big as they are, retailers like Barnes & Noble and Amazon are vulnerable to market forces bent on eliminating middlemen, and that's precisely why they have begun publishing books. The digital revolution demands a direct relationship between content provider and consumer. Merging a publisher and a bookstore like Borders would bring both struggling enterprises a little closer to that direct relationship, to profitability and to competitiveness.
Sometime in the first half of this year Google will open the doors to its bookstore, called Google Editions. Ian Paul, in PC World, writes: "Unlike Google's biggest competitors, Amazon and Barnes & Noble, which rely heavily on restrictive DRM, Google's store will not be device-specific - allowing for e-books purchased through Google Editions to be read on the far greater number of e-book readers that will flood the market in 2010"
That spells good news for the makers of all those new e-reading gadgets that may be well engineered and loaded with fun features but are hard-up for content. Amazon has its Kindle, but because its system is closed (that's what DRM means) you can't easily get Kindle content on a non-Kindle device. Same goes for B&N and its Nook.
Now you'll be able to download Google's vast (half a million at launch) library on just about any device available. Since most publishers have not given their content exclusively to Amazon or B&N, you'll be able to find and buy it from Google editions and read it on your Que, Skiff, Cool-Er, Flepia, or any other device. Just try not to be embarrassed when someone asks you the name of that e-book reader you're holding in your hand.
The deal Google offers publishers is 63 % of gross sales. This compares favorable with the 50% offered by most e-retailers. But Google is also offering to partner with retailers. If you decide you'd like to open an e-book retail store but don't know how and where to acquire the content, Google will furnish it. Your company would get 55 percent of revenues less a commission for Google.
"Google's e-books would reportedly be indexed and searchable like many books are now through Google's Book Search," says Paul. "Unlike titles offered through e-readers, Google Editions books would not have to be accessed through a dedicated reader or special application.Instead, any device with a Web browser will be able to access a Google Editions book. After you purchase and access your online book for the first time, it will be cached in your browser making the book available when you're offline."
"All is vanity." Ecclesiastes ********************** The uproar over Harlequin Enterprises' launch of a self-publishing venture reminded me of something my father used to say. He was an honest businessman, but every once in a while, when he saw an unscrupulous competitor getting stinking rich, he would shake his head and say, "I'm in the wrong racket."
I sometimes wonder if I'm in the wrong racket too. Maybe I should have gone into vanity publishing. I'm sure I'd have made a fortune. Everyone who's gone into it has made one, so I can't blame anyone for succumbing to its allure.
And now mainstream publishing has jumped on the bandwagon, with respectable firms like religious publisher Thomas Nelson and, most recently, Harlequin Enterprises picking up the banner. The line that once sharply separated traditional publishing ("We pay you") and vanity publishing ("You pay us") has all but dissolved in this corrosive environment of fabulous riches.
My early exposure to the power of vanity occurred when I joined Scott Meredith's literary agency after graduating college. Meredith had a fee-reading operation that ran like a turbine engine. Using his agency's track record as bait - his brochure was a collage of six- and seven-digit checks paid to professional clients - Meredith attracted countless would-be authors prepared to shell out hundreds of dollars for a manuscript reading they hoped might lead to acceptance for representation and an eventual professional career. I don't believe I ever saw a book accepted for representation out of the fee-reading program in all the years I worked there. Meredith's operation made tons of money and he died a wealthy man.
Around 2000 a number of enterprising business people recognized the profit potential in self-published books utilizing digital media. (For purposes of this piece I draw no distinction between self-publication, subsidized publication and vanity publication.) Until then the most famous name in subsidy publishing was Vantage Press (which, significantly, is still going strong). But companies like iUniverse, Xlibris and an outfit called Fatbrain offered a variety of self-publication services. How well did they do?
Well, Fatbrain with its subsidiary Mighty-Words, which published technical and professional material online (someone described it as Amazon for geeks), was sold to Barnes & Noble for $64 million. Xlibris? Acquired by Random House for an undisclosed sum, then sold to Author Solutions, the vast self-publishing empire which embraces iUniverse, Author House, Wordclay, Inkubook and Canadian vanity publisher Trafford Press. Kevin Weiss, CEO of Author Solutions, projects $100 million in revenue in 2009. Last year, Author Solutions released more than 21,000 new titles, according to Mediabistro, "including one out of every 20 new titles put into distribution in the U.S. Overall, ASI's catalog now includes more than 120,000 titles from more than 85,000 authors." Author Solutions is partnering with Harlequin in its soon-to-be-renamed Horizons self-publication program.
But there's more. Publishers Marketplace publisher Michael Cader recently reported that "Ebook distributor and online self-publishing platform Smashwords announced late Friday that BarnesandNoble.com will sell titles from the company as part of its new 'premium feed.' Smashwords, which says they publish about 2,600 titles electronically, will sell to BN.com at a traditional discount... Founder Mark Coker says that 'additional distribution relationships are forthcoming.' He says that 'until today, it was difficult if not impossible for independent authors and publishers to gain such mainstream digital distibution.'"
Yet another company, Scribd, calls itself "the largest social publishing company in the world, the website where tens of millions of people each month publish and discover original writings and documents." Scribd boasts "10 million documents published" and "5 million Scribd document reader embeds." Last spring it was reported that Scribd was partnering "with a number of major publishers, including Random House, Simon & Schuster, Workman Publishing Co., Berrett-Koehler, Thomas Nelson, and Manning Publications, to legally offer some of their content to Scribd’s community free of charge. Publishers have begun to add an array of content to Scribd’s library, including full-length novels as well as briefer teaser excerpts."
With so much money being thrown at subsidy publishers, and with the blessing of mainstream publishing, the evolution of vanity from the margins to the center of the publishing universe is complete. The erosion of traditional gatekeepers like reviewers, critics, newspaper book editors, and other refined literary tastemakers makes it clear why even a conservative publisher might lose its head over the prospect of all that money - and be tempted to go into another racket.
Lev Grossman and Andrea Sachs write in Timemagazine about our love-hate relationship with Amazon. Their conclusion? It depends on who's doing the loving and who's doing the hating. Defining Amazon is about as easy for us as defining the elephant was for the blind monks of Chinese legend. Time succinctly states the case:
"Amazon has diversified itself so comprehensively over the past five years that it's hard to say exactly what it is anymore. Amazon has a presence in almost every niche of the book industry. It runs a print-on-demand service (BookSurge) and a self-publishing service (CreateSpace). It sells e-books and an e-device to read them on (the Kindle, a new version of which, the DX, went on sale June 10). In 2008 alone, Amazon acquired Audible.com a leading audiobooks company; AbeBooks, a major online used-book retailer; and Shelfari, a Facebook-like social network for readers. In April of this year, it snapped up Lexcycle, which makes an e-reading app for the iPhone called Stanza."
As if all that were not enough, Amazon has now become a publisher, too. First, there's its Encore program "whereby Amazon will use information such as customer reviews on Amazon.com to identify exceptional, overlooked books and authors with more potential than their sales may indicate. Amazon will then partner with the authors to re-introduce their books to readers through marketing support and distribution into multiple channels and formats, such as the Amazon.com Books Store, Amazon Kindle Store, Audible.com, and national and independent bookstores via third-party wholesalers."
Amazon has also put its print on demand division into play in the form of a service called CreateSpace aimed at self-published authors.
For publishers the thought of Amazon becoming a competitor in their own space is their worst nightmare come true. As Time puts it, "If Amazon is a bookstore, it's supposed to be buying from publishers, not competing with them. Right?"
You got that right, Time! However, before we get out our pitchforks and start baying "Restraint of trade!" at Amazon you need to be reminded that it is not the only book retail behemoth that is also a publisher. Let's look at Barnes & Noble.
At the beginning of 2003 Barnes & Noble acquired Sterling Publishing, described at the time as "one of the top 25 publishers in America and the industry's leading publisher of how-to books." Publishers were gravely concerned and with every reason. Barnes & Noble's own titles were like a supermarket's house brand, often undercutting the prices of outside purveyors. Their anxieties were well founded. On many occasion, when I pitched a nonfiction book at a publisher, the editor would tell me to forget about it, Barnes & Noble already had such a book and the new one could never match the house-brand's low retail price.
The case against bookstores becoming publishers was stated so cogently by Morris Rosenthal that I reproduce it in full below. Though written four years ago as a followup to Barnes & Noble's acquisition of Sterling, it is word-for-word valid for Amazon as well and should serve as a chilling cautionary tale for all book industry watchers:
Monday, July 25, 2005 Sterling Publishing and Barnes & Noble Books
Barnes & Noble bought Sterling Publishing a little over 3 years ago, and publishing has been a rapidly growing segment of Barnes & Noble's strategy ever since. Sterling has over 5,000 titles in print and is adding about 1100 annually, primarily in the How-To area. Barnes & Noble also acquires books from other publishers, such as the "in easy steps" computer series from U.K's Computer Step publishers, and Barnes & Noble also publishes an extensive backlist of out-of-print and out-of-copyright classics. According to their annual 10K filing, Barnes & Noble also "commissions books directly from authors" and "creates collections of fiction and non-fiction using in-house editors." All of this shapes up as good business for Barnes & Noble, but doesn't cheer most self publishers.
The reason has to do with shelf spaces and market saturation. Barnes & Noble is the dominant bookstore chain in the country, and they have a good record of working with small publishers when it comes to in-store events and stocking titles. However, as their annual report points out - "Each Barnes & Noble store stocks from 60,000 to 200,000 titles, of which approximately 50,000 titles are common to all stores." For the true super stores which stock 200,000 titles (though I suspect they may have meant "books" rather than "titles") that leaves a lot of room for regional or independent books, but the smaller stores seem to do an excellent job stocking the Barnes & Noble published books (and they'd be nuts not to), so it's a scary thing for a small nonfiction publisher to find that a Barnes & Noble imprint is publishing a competing title.
Barnes & Noble now has some 10,000 books in print, and they tend to be lower priced than the competing titles, which while great for customers (vertical supply chain) doesn't make publishers very enthusiastic. I seem to recall Steve Riggio saying last year that they were targeting 10% of book sales as self-published by Barnes & Noble. I also seem to remember him saying three or four years ago that they were targeting 5%, so it stands to reason if they reach 10%, they'll up the ante again.
With half their books coming from their Sterling subsidiary which specializes in how-to, and a good chunk of the remaining half also in the how-to segment, it's safe to assume that how-to publishers are at the greatest risk for the time being. The how-to emphasis makes sense, since Barnes & Noble can easily track which titles are doing well throughout their chain, than commission or acquire similar titles. They don't need to be huge sellers, the acquisition cost for a commissioned book is pretty low (lots of hungry writers out there) and the guaranteed shelf space makes a large first print run, which combined with the lack of middlemen, makes the low pricing possible. If I was in the process of setting up a new imprint to publish nonfiction, I would look long and hard at my business model and focus on titles I felt would do especially well on Amazon or independent stores, as opposed to making plans based on the whole market.
Barnes & Noble Levels the E-Book Playing Field with Acquisition of Fictionwise
Back in December, after it moved a key executive into the position of Director of Digital Content, we speculated that Barnes & Noble might be contemplating a second assault on the ramparts of the e-book industry. Today the ramparts fell with the news that the retail giant has acquired Fictionwise, the world’s leading e-book retailer for $15.7 million.
With this single stroke, B&N comes roaring back into a business it abandoned in 2003. Of far greater significance is that B&N is now catapulted back onto a competitive footing with amazon.com in the all-important e-book arena. Though Barnes & Noble doesn’t boast a Kindle or any other proprietary e-book reader, there is a host of devices now available or soon to come on stream capable of carrying the immense body of e-book content that Fictionwise has aggregated.
Fictionwise’s multiformat feature enables subscribers to download books in such platforms as Adobe, Palm, Sony, iPhone and even Kindle itself. In January 2008, Fictionwise acquired eReader, the principal Palm-format etailer and reinforced the widely held view that it is the team to beat in the digital book major leagues.
Fictionwise was created in 2000 as a partnership between Steve Pendergrast and his brother Scott's Mindwise Media, LLC. They subsequently spun Fictionwise off. Starting modestly with digital reprints of science fiction short stories, it was not long before its cutting edge e-book delivery system, brilliant metrics, and author- and fan-friendly business model attracted authors, publishers and other content providers. Today it sells thousands of e-book titles for nearly five hundred publishers including E-Reads. The Pendergasts will continue operating the website for the parent company.
Asked what he thought of the B&N/Fictionwise marriage, one executive pronounced it "Electrifying! It changes everything."
When Galley Cat invited me to make some predictions for the coming decade, I conjectured that sometime in the near future we would see the merger of a major retailer and a major publisher. Here was my reasoning: "A combined publisher/retailer solves many problems for both.The retailer owns the content and doesn't have to pay a premium for it. The publisher does not have to pay a premium to distribute its books. There would be huge efficiencies of manufacturing and distribution."
Back in December, after it moved a key executive into the position of Director of Digital Content, we 
